By Charlie Simpson | April 24, 2026
A new study suggests that more than 170 candidates running in a sectarian style could secure seats in this year’s local elections, raising fresh concerns about the focus of local democracy.
The Henry Jackson Society has developed the first statistical model of its kind to forecast where such candidates are most likely to succeed. Drawing on patterns from the 2024 local elections, the research projects outcomes for the 2026 contests and identifies 171 potential victories across 31 councils in England.
The report, titled Forecasting the Muslim Sectarian Wave: Ward-Level Predictors of Electoral Success, shows that these results are far from random. Success is heavily concentrated in wards characterised by higher voter turnout, younger populations, and a larger share of Muslim residents. When these factors align, local contests appear more vulnerable to being shaped by issues outside a council’s formal responsibilities.
In 2024, candidates fitting the study’s definition of “sectarian-style” – those whose campaigning centred on Muslim communal or transnational political grievances – stood under a range of banners, including as Independents, for the Green Party, Labour, and the Workers Party. The analysis stresses that the term is used purely as an analytical description of campaigning patterns and does not label individuals or voters by religion.
The projection for 2026 is based on underlying demographic and electoral data rather than direct ward-by-ward comparisons, given that different areas vote in different cycles. Early signs from candidate activity in places such as Oldham, Bradford, and Rochdale indicate that similar dynamics could play out again this year.
Emma Schubart, the report’s author and a Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, said: “We saw a clear rise in sectarian-style candidates in the 2024 local elections. Our analysis suggests the risk could be greater in 2026.”
These outcomes are not random – they follow a clear and identifiable pattern, concentrated in areas with the same underlying characteristics. Using publicly available data, we can now estimate where this is most likely to happen and how far it could spread in the current election cycle.
That matters because when local elections become a vehicle for issues councils have no power to resolve, democratic accountability is weakened and local voters are left further disconnected from the decisions their councils are actually able to make.”
Breakdown of Projected Candidates
The 171 candidates are distributed as follows:
- Workers Party of Britain: 69
- Aspire: 45
- Green Party: 16
- Your Party: 10
- Independents: 30
- Workers Party – Oldham Group: 1
They are spread across 116 wards in 31 councils: Barking and Dagenham, Birmingham, Blackburn with Darwen, Bradford, Brent, Bury, Calderdale, Camden, Coventry, Croydon, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Hyndburn, Kirklees, Lambeth, Lewisham, Manchester, Milton Keynes, Newcastle upon Tyne, Newham, North Tyneside, Oldham, Oxford, Rochdale, Rushmoor, Tameside, Tower Hamlets, Walsall, Waltham Forest, and Westminster.
Below you can find the Henry Jackson Society’s checker, where you can type your postcode in and see if there’s a sectarian candidate standing in your area:
https://henryjacksonsociety.org/sectarianism/
The Henry Jackson Society emphasises that the phenomenon is not nationwide but focused in a relatively small number of areas. By highlighting these patterns, the research aims to encourage greater scrutiny of how local elections are contested and whether they truly serve the practical needs of residents.
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